Editor’s Note: Paul Begala, a Democratic strategist and CNN political commentator, was a political consultant for Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign in 1992 and served as a counselor to Clinton in the White House. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his. View more opinion articles on CNN.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent presidential campaign can’t win, but it could swing the presidency to former President Donald Trump. Kennedy’s selection Tuesday of Nicole Shanahan, a Democratic donor from Northern California, as his running mate is the final point of proof that the RFK campaign is a heat-seeking missile aimed at Biden.
Some people, a little slow on the uptake perhaps, persist in the fantasy that Kennedy, as a vaccine critic and conspiracy promoter, would draw from Trump. In his choice of running mates, RFK Jr. has ended that debate.
Not very much is known about Shanahan, the woman Kennedy wants one heartbeat away from the presidency. She is a 38-year-old attorney and entrepreneur who grew up poor, raised by an immigrant single mom in California. She was formerly married to Google co-founder Sergey Brin and has used her wealth for a variety of philanthropic and political causes.
In the political world, she has, according to The New York Times, described herself as a “progressive through and through,” and has donated to Democrats like former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and California Rep. Ro Khanna. And Biden. So, yeah, I think we can conclude she has been on Team D.
A candidate born with perhaps the most famous name in Democratic history has chosen a running mate with a gold-plated Democratic donor history. Amazingly, according to the Times, as recently as one month ago, Kennedy had only spoken to Shanahan once. Perhaps that’s all the vetting Kennedy needed to choose someone to help him siphon off Democratic votes.
Common sense tells you RFK Jr. is likely to draw more votes from Biden than Trump. The name alone is a giveaway. Kennedy’s name couldn’t be more blue if it were Democrat McDonkeyface.
His great-grandfather, John Francis “Honey Fitz” Fitzgerald, was a Democratic congressman, then the Democratic mayor of Boston over a century ago. His grandfather, Joseph P. Kennedy, served as chair of the Securities Exchange Commission and then ambassador to Great Britain under Democratic President Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
RFK Jr.’s namesake father was a Democratic US attorney general and a Democratic senator from New York. He was murdered the night he won the Democratic presidential primary in California.
Bobby Jr.’s uncle, John F. Kennedy, was a Democratic congressman from Massachusetts, then a Democratic senator from Massachusetts, then the Democratic president of the United States, and also the victim of an assassin. Another uncle, Edward M. Kennedy, was elected nine times to the US Senate. Each time, he ran as a Democrat and served as a Democrat. Teddy, like his brother, sought the presidency as a Democrat.
Bobby’s brother, Joseph P. Kennedy II, was a Democratic congressman. So was Joe’s son, RFK Jr’s nephew, Joseph P. Kennedy III. Bobby’s sister, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, was the Democratic lieutenant governor of Maryland. In 2021, she joined the Biden administration.
Bobby’s cousin Patrick Kennedy was also a Democratic congressman, representing Rhode Island for 16 years. Bobby’s aunt, Jean Kennedy Smith, served as ambassador to Ireland in the Clinton administration, and his cousin, Caroline Kennedy, served as President Barack Obama’s ambassador to Japan and is currently ambassador to Australia in a Democratic administration.
I go through that pedigree, an unbroken string of Kennedys running or serving as Democrats stretching back a century and a quarter, to suggest that maybe, perhaps, potentially, possibly, a third party candidate named Bobby Kennedy Jr. might attract more votes from the Democrats than from the Republicans. Put the shoe on the other foot: Would a third party candidate named Trump or Reagan have instant appeal with Republicans?
As a former Clinton strategist, the dumbest myth I’ve had to deal with was that Ross Perot’s independent candidacy swung the 1992 election to Clinton. To believe that, one must ignore that Perot, like Clinton, was a change candidate; like Clinton, he was pro-choice, and like Clinton, Perot supported campaign finance reform.
Look at the data: Perot was leading in the polls in June 1992. When he temporarily dropped out of the race, Clinton’s support surged, with Clinton gaining an astonishing 30% in just one month. Later, Perot got back in the race, and Clinton’s support went from 55% to 43%. On Election Day, most Perot voters (51%, to be exact) told exit pollsters that Clinton, not then-President George Bush, was their second choice.
But you don’t need decades of experience and reams of data to see who RFK Jr’s bid hurts. All you need is a clear head, a command of history and a pair of functioning eyes.